Money Management Line System
First, I'm a numbers guy. Most people gamble because it makes games more interesting and I handicap mainly for the challenge of winning at something where most people say you can not win.
My Money Management System is a modified line system which varies from 1/2 % to 2% of my bankroll.
Some facts related to this system: 1. Throwing a dart at the games will give you, on average, about 50% winners which is enough for the system to work. 2. It is mathematically impossible to not win with this system as long as your picks win 50% of the time. 3. The low % of bankroll for each wager means that you never "sweat" a game. 4. It really makes no difference if you win or lose a specific game because the system is designed to account for you losing half of your games. 5. Risks are always low so that you never take a chance on losing most or all of your bankroll even during a losing streak. 6. Although you will not win large amounts on any one game, the units accumulate over time. For example, my posted plays on Betting Talk have now accumulated over 350 units since joining the forum in just a couple of years. 7. The two things books can not control is which team you pick or the amount wagered. By using these two factors wisely, you can and will beat the books.
This basic system has been used for years but has never become popular for several reasons. First, most versions of these systems have too high of a risk factor for a less than 50% win ratio which you face in a casino table game. Following is part of an article on line systems which are sometimes called cancelation systems.
Standard Cancellation Betting System
In the long run there is one unavoidable truth, that the ratio of money won or lost to money bet will always approach a given constant. That constant depends on the game played but always equals the house advantage.
Not to condone gambling systems, but rather to prevent people from supporting those who scam the public by selling them, I shall present what is called the "cancellation system" here. While some people like flying by the seat of their pants at the gambling table others prefer something more systematic.
How to Play using a standard cancellation system
The concept behind this system is that in the long run two events of roughly equal probability will happen roughly the same number of times. This system depends on this happening in the short run. The more money you wish to put up, the longer into the long run you can afford to go, thus increasing your odds of a winning session.
The goal of this system is to win ten units at an even money game, like betting red or black in roulette or the pass or don't pass in craps. The player must decide how much a unit is and how many units to risk. The money risked for a particular session shall be called the 'bankroll.' Below are the specifics on how to use it:
1. Start by writing on a piece of paper ten 1s in a row (1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1). Each number will represent a betting unit. When all numbers have been crossed off the paper you will have won 10 units. 2. For each bet wager the sum of the number on the left and the number on the right, unless there is only one number left in which case you bet that number. 3. If you win cross off both numbers. 4. If you lose place the sum at the end on the right. 5. If the bankroll you decided to risk at the beginning is not enough to bet the sum of the left and right numbers then: 5A. If your bankroll can cover the number on the left then wager that. If you win then cross off the left number. If you lose then add to the left number what you lost. 5B. If your bankroll can not cover the number on the left then bet whatever is left of your bankroll. If you win then deduct from the number on the left what you won. If you lose then your bankroll is consumed and you must leave the table. 6. Keep repeating these steps until you either cross off all numbers or exhaust the bankroll you decided initially to risk. Here is an example: The bankroll is in units, you decide how much a unit is. For example if you wish to risk $100 you might decide to make each unit $2 for a bankroll of 50 units. If you play this system against craps you have a 81.4% of winning 10 units, or $20 for each line.
The theory is that by crossing off two numbers for a win and adding only one for a loss you will eventually cross off all the numbers. The more you put up to risk the greater the probability of crossing off all the numbers. Of course you are welcome to deviate from the strategy at any time. You can also start with more or less numbers, the more numbers you use the more you can win but the greater the probability of losing. The person who I learned this system from said that when he is nearing the limit of his bankroll he would chicken out and divide the numbers by two and play each set individually. While every gambling system I have ever seen says you must play their method exactly you are no better or worse off in the long run by deviating from any system. The discussion of this system in The Winner's Guide to Casino Gambling states that you may use any numbers, but says the most common application is sequential numbers, for example 1 2 3 4 5. The purpose of gambling systems should be to increase your gambling enjoyment, not to change the outcome in the long run, so if you want to deviate then by all means you are free to do so.
Big Dog's Money Management Line System
In the case of my line system, it always wins because I have a set number of units in a preprogramed environment. Plus, my long term win ratio is close to 60% playing a system designed for a 50% win ratio and since my amount per unit is only 1/2% of my bankroll, I never sweat a game, get into a situation where there are limits (like a casino table games) and can easily ride out a losing streak. Most importantly, I can change the lines to my advantage at any time so long as the total units to win stays the same as the original lines. For example, since I like to keep risks low, I will sometimes split a number over 3 units after a loss and then continue. And with a long term win ratio of over 50%, I can split any large loss and still clear all lines which makes it much different than in the article above. The juice is added to any loss. I have used variations of this system for years and have never failed to clear the defined lines to reach a short term goal.
Although I have different numbers in my lines depending on my short term goals, I usually use: .5, .5, .5, .5, .5, .5,1,1,1,1, 1.5, 1.5 This consists of 12 numbers and equals 10 units. In setting goals, it is important to consider your winning % ratio, units you plan to win, and a time frame. The time frame is measured in the average number of games required to clear the line which can be equated to days if you know the average number of games per day you normally play. In the example, on average, with a 50% win ratio and 2 games per day, it will take 12 games or 6 days to clear this line.
I am currently finishing up a long term demonstration of winning 100 units on Betting Talk so you can watch how the system works. I might mention that the original demonstration goal was 70 units but we have already passed that goal and have now expanded it to win 100 units by the end of the year.
There are 4 major factors to the mathematics of this system:
1. Units to Win. 2. Time Frame to Clear the Line. 3. Risk Factor. 4. Spread Verses Money Line.
1. Units to Win: Normally I like to have 10 unit lines because these can be cleared in less than a month depending on the other factors and 10 unit lines can be cleared over 80% of the time even with a win ratio of less than 50% such as a casino. This provides a slow, steady growth of about 10 units per month and exceeds our goal of winning over 100 units per year. Of course, with a win ratio of 50% or better, the lines always clear 100% of the time because it is mathematically impossibe for the lines not to clear.
2. Time Frame to Clear a Line: This factor is determined by the type of line and the risk we want to assign to a line. For example, a 'standard line' will look like this: 1,1,1,2,2,3 = 10 units In this line, for a 50% win ratio, it will typically take 12 games to clear the line (6 numbers in the line times 2 =12. This is expressed as 6 / .5 = 12) However, this line starts out with a 4unit play which is a higher risk than many like to play. Plus, should there be 34 losses in a row at the beginning using Money Line favorites, the risk becomes unacceptable.
On the other hand, we can go with the lowest risk as follows: 1/2 unit times 20 = 10 units. This will provive a low risk line but increase the time factor and typically take 33 games to clear with a 60% win ratio (20 / .6 = 33.3.
3. Risk Factor: We want to clear a line as quickly as possible with as low of a risk as possible. By using the line suggested above, we will clear over 10 units per month with the lowest possible risk. Even with a losing streak at the beginning, we are not in a big hole and can quickly recover. Also, we can put a max of 3 units on plays by splitting any number over 3 into two smaller numbers. This will increase the time to clear the line by 1 game per split but will keep all numbers within this limit futher reducing risk.
4, Spread verses Money Line. As a rule I perfer spreads because it lowers risk per play . With MLB games, I use money lines when they are low or Run Lines 1 when they are high. Using Run Lines reduces the win ratio but keeps risks lower.
We always add juice to our line with any loss. so that we recover not only any previous loss but the juice as well. To some, this may seem like chasing losses but it's really not. It's a structured mathematical formula to success.
And one last note. I have used this at casino roulette tables. What I have done there is plan on two, 10 unit lines. At a $5 table, that wins $100 when cleared. If at any session, I lose $50, I walk away and start over at another table or another casino. And, I've won the $100 a lot more times than I've walked away losing $50. This is where the 81.4 % chance of clearing any one line comes into play against casino table odds. But warning: Do Not try this with Internet casino games because they are controlled by the software. I know that for a fact so trust me on this.
